Tuesday, December 08, 2020

 

Anointing Biden & Election Irregularity Allegations IV

Yesterday, the Texas Attorney General filed a motion to have the US Supreme Court consider the State of Texas' complaint on 2020 presidential election irregularities and improprieties in Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The four defendant states have already submitted their certificates of ascertainment regarding their presidential electors to the National Archives.

In the complaint, which, again, the Court has not yet agreed to hear, Texas is thus asking the Court to order:

E. If any of Defendant States have already appointed presidential electors to the Electoral College using the 2020 election results, direct such States' legislatures, pursuant to 3 U.S.C. § 2 and U.S. CONST. art. II, § 1, cl. 2, to appoint a new set of presidential electors in a manner that does not violate the Electors Clause and the Fourteenth Amendment, or to appoint no presidential electors at all.
In sum, as I read it, Texas wants either the four defendant states' Republican-controlled legislatures or the US House of Representatives pursuant to the 12th Amendment ("the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote") to decide the election.

Here are my thoughts:

1. The Texas action is the best pled and most concise case I've seen so far alleging problems in the 2020 presidential election. It's far better than the dumpster fire pleadings offered by Sidney Powell that I've read.

2. I think the State of Texas should have standing but that is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition and it's motion comes awfully late.

3. I have not followed the lower state and federal court election cases closely enough to say how persuasive the evidence is of substantial issues with the election so I will not presume to know how the Supreme Court should or will rule (I mention this because the Texas complaint appears to rely heavily on lower court filings and opinions). If the allegations are substantially true as pled then I would hope the Court would agree to hear the complaint; however, I am skeptical that Texas is on solid legal and evidentiary ground.

4. I think the statistical evidence offered by Charles J. Cicchetti, PhD is flawed, unpersuasive, and harmful to the case. Cicchetti tested the hypothesis "that other things being the same" Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden "would have an equal number of votes" (see Cicchetti Declaration at ¶¶ 11-13). But we know "other things" beyond alleged election irregularities were far from the same in 2016 and 2020. For example, among other things, Trump was running as an incumbent heading an administration beset by personnel instability, incompetence, and a lack of discipline.

5. If, as seems likely, the Supreme Court refuses to hear this complaint then it's probably game over for all the election challenges.

6. If the Supreme Court agrees to hear this complaint then it's a game changer and, although I never want to underestimate their capacity for dishonesty, the mainstream media will probably be compelled to drop their mantra that claims of election irregularities are "baseless", etc. We'll probably also see violent protests by Trump haters.

7. If the Supreme Court agrees to hear this complaint then to open up the possibility that Trump stays in the White House for another term the Supreme Court would have to invalidate the election results in at least three of the four defendant states. If they do agree to hear the complaint then I predict they will overturn the election results in fewer than three states and send Biden to the White House with an unchanged or, more likely, smaller Electoral College margin.

See also:

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Comments:
For your Point #4 (i.e., "flawed, unpersuasive, and harmful to the case"), we have here an unfortunate intersection of statistics-ese and legal-ese, and some confusion is understandable. But this definitely is not flawed and unpersuasive. This is extremely powerful evidence, but you have to read the entire declaration. With 11-13, he is just getting warmed up, and is setting the framework for his later points, such as the astronomical shifts in Biden proportion of votes when you get into the late night counting, and the rejection rates from 2016. This evidence is beyond reasonable doubt.
 
Anonymous, thank you for your comment. I apologize for taking so long to see (and then approve) it.

I did read the entire Cicchetti Declaration and I stand by my earlier assessment. Cicchetti relied upon faulty premises/null hypotheses all the way through. His use of inferential statistics when no inference is to be drawn, because the numbers he analyzes are populations not samples, is also problematic.
 
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